Parallel Evolution: Electricity Markets vs Transit Exchange

How an aerospace engineer independently developed Nord Pool for roadspacetime (2003-2008)
⚡ Electricity Markets
1992-93
Central Electricity Research Labs (CERL)
Project using day-ahead and week-ahead weather predictions to schedule power line loading. Eric Masaba works on demand response balancing at CERL - experiences UK Pool firsthand.
Day-Ahead Scheduling Demand Response
1993-96
Nord Pool Emergence
Norway opens competitive electricity market (1993). Nordic market coupling begins (1996) - Sweden, Finland, Denmark join. Largest power consumption in Europe: 400 TWh
Spot Market Regional Coupling
2001
NETA Launch (England & Wales)
Shift from centralized pool to bilateral trading. Multiple trading platforms, balancing mechanism, imbalance settlement. Gate closure moved closer to real-time.
Bilateral Trading Balancing Mechanism
2005
BETTA & EU ETS Phase 1
BETTA extends NETA to Scotland. EU Emissions Trading launches - carbon markets added to power trading. Free allocation initially, moving toward auctioning.
GB-wide Market Carbon Markets Added
2006
Nord Pool: CER Contracts & Cross-Margining
Nord Pool introduces CER (Certified Emission Reduction) contracts as first exchange (June 1st). EUA forward and spot markets. Netting between commodities. Cross-margining possibilities. Over 420 members physical/financial, 112 in emissions.
CER Trading Cross-Margin Clearing Netting Across Products
2008-15
EPEX SPOT & EU Market Coupling
EPEX formed from French/German merger (2008). Progressive EU coupling: CWE (2010), NWE including UK & Nordics (2014), Price Coupling of Regions (2015). Integration of spot, financial, carbon, and balancing markets.
Pan-European Coupling Integrated Clearing
🚗 Transit Exchange (Roadspacetime)
1992-93
Foundation: CERL Experience
Same person! Eric Masaba's work on power line loading and demand response at Central Electricity Research Labs provides foundational understanding of day-ahead scheduling, balancing mechanisms, and constraint management.
Learning: Day-Ahead Systems Learning: Balancing
1995
RAEng Project: Transport & Computing
Royal Academy of Engineering project on "The Role of Computers in Transportation Technology" - early exploration of computational approaches to transport problems.
Conceptual Foundation
2003-06
Transit Exchange Concept Development
Parallel to BETTA & EU ETS development! Eric designs a complete exchange for "roadspacetime" with: futures, forwards, options for ride capacity; market makers; spatio-temporal order matching; cross-margining capabilities; day-ahead and real-time booking.
Futures & Options Market Makers Spatio-Temporal Matching
2005-06
SMS-Based System Demonstrated
While Nord Pool is adding CER contracts and cross-margining, Eric demonstrates Transit Exchange as exclusively SMS-based system. Real-time dynamic ridesharing with market formation solving.
Working Prototype Real-Time Matching
2006
🎯 DEPLOYED: Liverpool Trial
REAL DEPLOYMENT! Liverpool, March-September 2006, Fridays and Saturdays 22:00-03:00. 135 successful shared rides summoned by SMS. Strangers sharing taxis to common destinations. Headways as short as 5 minutes. This happened while Nord Pool was launching CER contracts!
135 TRIPS DEPLOYED 5-Min Headways Real-Time Settlement
2008
🎯 DEPLOYED: Isle of Wight
EXPANDED DEPLOYMENT! Ryde, Isle of Wight, July-December 2008, Fridays 22:00-03:00. 700 successful shared rides. System proving scalability and reliability. While EPEX SPOT is forming and EU coupling advancing!
700 TRIPS DEPLOYED Proven at Scale Multi-Agent System
2009-10
Full System Design Complete
Complete "New Transport Economy" vision documented. Includes: options trading, futures contracts, installment payments, ride partner rating, social network integration, battlespace concepts from military. Uber founded 2009 - without any exchange architecture.
Full Derivatives Suite Social Networks Cross-Margining Design

⚡ Architectural Parallels: Electricity ↔ Transport 🚗

Nord Pool Elspot (Day-Ahead)

Transit Exchange Day-Ahead Booking
Nord Pool Elbas (Adjustment Market)

Transit Exchange Real-Time Matching
Financial Futures & Forwards

Ride Futures & Forwards
Options Contracts (Electricity)

Options Contracts (Rides)
Market Makers (Price Discovery)

Market Makers (Ride Pricing)
Cross-Margining (Power + Carbon)

Cross-Margining (Different Ride Types)
Balancing Mechanism (Grid)

Dynamic Ridematching (Roads)
Imbalance Settlement

No-Show Penalties / Credits

The Six Pillars Framework (From Transit Exchange)

1. Futures Exchanges + Electricity Markets

  • Day-ahead and week-ahead booking
  • Financial derivatives for capacity
  • Price discovery mechanisms
  • Settlement and clearing

2. Spatio-Temporal Order Matching

  • Matching supply and demand in space AND time
  • Constraint-based optimization
  • Real-time reoptimization
  • Multi-dimensional matching

3. Complex Analysis / Simplex Method

  • Conformal mapping for route optimization
  • Linear programming for matching
  • NP-Hard problem solving
  • Computational geometry

4. Social Networks / Credit Contagion

  • Reputation systems for riders/drivers
  • Trust networks and ratings
  • Credit risk management
  • Network effects and clustering

5. Integrated Battlespaces (Military)

  • ADS-B + Link 16 concepts
  • Searchable battlespace → "travelspace"
  • Real-time situational awareness
  • Multi-agent coordination

6. Genetic Algorithms / Topology

  • Evolutionary optimization
  • Network topology analysis
  • Route optimization
  • Adaptive system learning

🎯 The Remarkable Parallel

In 2006, while Nord Pool was introducing CER contracts and pioneering cross-margining between electricity and carbon markets - demonstrating 60% market share and claiming over 420 members - Eric Masaba was deploying the Transit Exchange in Liverpool with real paying customers, successfully completing 135 shared rides using the exact same architectural concepts: day-ahead booking, real-time balancing, market makers, and cross-margining.


The timing is extraordinary: Both systems reached operational maturity at exactly the same moment. Nord Pool's document from this period emphasizes that "liquidity, product range, competitive terms, and netting and cross-margining possibilities" were the keys to success. Eric had independently identified these exact same features as critical for the transport market.


The credibility gap: Imagine trying to convince the Nord Pool executives - who had spent 13+ years (1993-2006) building the world's largest power exchange - that a "nobody aero engineer" had independently developed an analogous system for transport, incorporating lessons from electricity markets, military battlespaces, futures exchanges, social networks, and complex mathematics. And that it was already deployed and working in the real world.


What Uber missed: When Uber launched in 2009, it had none of this architecture. No futures, no options, no cross-margining, no true market-making. It was just real-time matching with surge pricing. Eric had envisioned and deployed the full exchange architecture 3 years earlier, and designed the complete derivatives suite by 2010.

Key Insights from the Documents

Nord Pool's Competitive Advantages (2006-07)

  • ✓ Liquidity (financial trade 7x consumption)
  • ✓ Product range and development
  • ✓ Competitive terms
  • Netting and cross-margining possibilities
  • ✓ Market Makers for price discovery
  • ✓ 420+ members, 112 in emissions

Transit Exchange's Parallel Features (2003-10)

  • ✓ Liquidity via "river of empty seats"
  • ✓ Full product range (futures, options, forwards)
  • ✓ Competitive pricing via market makers
  • Cross-margining across ride types
  • ✓ Market makers for price discovery
  • Deployed: 835 real trips (Liverpool + Isle of Wight)